Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

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Climate change in Africa
East Africa, long-rains (September-December)
10 November 2006
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 100 years
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 10 years
Projected changes in mean rainfall
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 10 years
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 100 years
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 100 years
Changes in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in 'long-rains' high rainfall events that occur once every 100 years. Shown are the 5 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically and have enough data.
GFDL CM2.1 10yr verywet differenceMPI ECHAM5 10yr verywet difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr verywet differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr verywet difference CSIRO mk3.0 10yr verywet difference
colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 10 years
Changes in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in 'long-rains' high rainfall events that occur once every 10 years. Shown are the 5 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically and have enough data.
GFDL CM2.1 10yr wet differenceMPI ECHAM5 10yr wet difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr wet differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr wet difference CSIRO mk3.0 10yr wet difference
colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in mean rainfall
Changes in the amount of mean rainfall around 2100 in the 'long-rains' season. Shown are the 5 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically and have enough data.
GFDL CM2.1 10yr mean differenceMPI ECHAM5 10yr mean difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr mean differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr mean difference CSIRO mk3.0 10yr mean difference
colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 10 years
Changes in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in 'long-rains' lowest rainfall events that occur once every 10 years. Shown are the 5 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically and have enough data.
GFDL CM2.1 10yr dry differenceMPI ECHAM5 10yr dry difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr dry differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr dry difference CSIRO mk3.0 10yr dry difference
colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 100 years
Changes in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in 'long-rains' lowest rainfall events that occur once every 100 years. Shown are the 5 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically and have enough data.
GFDL CM2.1 10yr verydry differenceMPI ECHAM5 10yr verydry difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr verydry differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr verydry difference CSIRO mk3.0 10yr verydry difference
colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
 
More maps
All extremes short-rains
All extremes long-rains
Projected trends for each region
Coastal regions
Northeastern Kenya
Central Kenya has been omitted (falls below model grid size)
Northwestern Kenya, The Rift Valley and Northern Uganda
Much of Tanzania
Nyanza and Lake Victoria Basin
Southern Uganda and northeast DRC
Rwanda and Burundi
Regional information
Southern Africa
East Africa
North-east Africa
West Africa
Publications
Brochure: Changes in extreme weather in Africa under global warming (PDF)
Paper: Shongwe et al. (2009): Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part I: Southern Africa. J. Climate, 22, 3819-3837.
Paper: Shongwe et al. (2008) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part II: East Africa (J. Climate, submitted)
Paper: Shongwe et al. (2006) Performance of recalibration systems for GCM forecasts for southern Africa. Int. J. Climatology, 26, 1567-1585.
Moisture Flux (East Africa)
Moisture_flux
Partners
KNMI Climate research
Red Cross/Red Crescent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness
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Technical details
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