Eastern Sudan is the driest of the two North-east Africa regions considered. The time series plots show that the area experienced multi-decadal rainfall oscillations during the 20th century with the last three decades mainly drier than average. There is little consensus amongst the selected climate models in projecting the likely change in mean rainfall during the 21st century. However, a continuation of the late-20th century rainfall deficits seem more likely than a trend in the opposite direction. The GFDL CM2.0 and GFDL CM2.1 models project a significant shift in mean rainfall conditions towards drier values, while the projections from the other models do not suggest any meaningful trend.
An exception being the UKMO HadGEM1 model, the other models have difficulties simulating a realistic 20th century annual cycle. The MPI ECHAM5 model peaks the correct pattern albeit with a dry bias. These 'best' models do not show an obvious shift in the rainfall season. The inability of the other models to correctly locate the 20th century rainfall maxima months limits the confidence one can place on the projected changes in the length of the rainfall season.