Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

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Climate change in Africa
Southern Africa
10 November 2006
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 100 years
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 10 years
Projected changes in mean
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 10 years
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 100 years
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 100 years
Percentage change in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in high rainfall events that occur once every 100 years. Shown are the 6 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically.
CCCMA CGCM 3.1 10yr verywet differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr verywet difference IPSL CM4 10yr verywet differenceMRI CGCM 2.3.2a 10yr verywet difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr verywet differenceGFDL CM2.1 10yr verywet difference colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in wettest events that occur once every 10 years
Percentage change in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in high rainfall events that occur once every 10 years. Shown are the 6 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically.
CCCMA CGCM 3.1 10yr wet differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr wet difference IPSL CM4 10yr wet differenceMRI CGCM 2.3.2a 10yr wet difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr wet differenceGFDL CM2.1 10yr wet difference colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in the mean
Percentage changes in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in the mean rainfall. Shown are the 6 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically.
CCCMA CGCM 3.1 10yr mean differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr mean difference IPSL CM4 10yr mean differenceMRI CGCM 2.3.2a 10yr mean difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr mean differenceGFDL CM2.1 10yr mean difference colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 10 years
Percentage change in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in rainfall events that occur once every 10 years. Shown are the 6 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically.
CCCMA CGCM 3.1 10yr dry differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr dry difference IPSL CM4 10yr dry differenceMRI CGCM 2.3.2a 10yr dry difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr dry differenceGFDL CM2.1 10yr dry difference colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
Projected changes in driest events that occur once every 100 years
Percentage change in the amount of rainfall around 2100 in rainfall events that occur once every 100 years. Shown are the 6 climate models that simulate the current climate most realistically.
CCCMA CGCM 3.1 10yr verydry differenceGFDL CM2.0 10yr verydry difference IPSL CM4 10yr verydry differenceMRI CGCM 2.3.2a 10yr verydry difference UKMO HadGEM1 10yr verydry differenceGFDL CM2.1 10yr verydry difference colourbar from -50% to +50% in steps of 10%
 
More maps
All extremes
Projected trends for each region
Southern Cape omitted (falls below most models' grid size)
Northern Cape and North-west provinces of South Africa
Eastern Cape and Lesotho
KwaZulu Natal, Free State, Gauteng and Swaziland
Southern Mozambique
Limpompo, southern Zimbabwe and eastern Botswana
Southern Botswana and North-West
Northern Botswana, western Zimbabwe and southern Zambia
Central Zimbabwe has been omitted (no model grid falls here)
Eastern Zimbabwe and central Mozambique
Southern Zambia
Northern Zambia and Malawi
Northern Mozambique
Regional information
Southern Africa
East Africa
North-east Africa
West Africa
Publications
Brochure: Changes in extreme weather in Africa under global warming (PDF)
Paper: Shongwe et al. (2009): Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part I: Southern Africa. J. Climate, 22, 3819-3837.
Paper: Shongwe et al. (2008) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part II: East Africa (J. Climate, submitted)
Paper: Shongwe et al. (2006) Performance of recalibration systems for GCM forecasts for southern Africa. Int. J. Climatology, 26, 1567-1585.
Moisture Flux (East Africa)
Moisture_flux
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