Research
Climate change in West Africa
The eastern Gulf of Guinea coast, southern Ghana, Togo and Benin (Region 3)
18 December 2006
Long-term fluctuations
This area features some of the driest areas along the Gulf of Guniea
Coast. For the last few decades of the 20th century, below average rainfall
years dominated. There is little consensus amongst the models in
projecting 21st century rainfall trends. The GFDL CM2.0 and GFDL CM2.1 models
project a downward trend with the remainder of the set of models showing
either no significant trend or an upward trend. This is a preeminent example
of large uncertainties in the model predictions of future precipitation trends.
Region 3 precipitation differences from the 1901-1950 mean [mm/day] with a ten-year running mean in observations and selected climate models.
Annual cycle
There is a clear wet bias in the model simulation of precipitation for this
drier West African coastal area. The MIUB ECHO-G model locates the rainfall
maxima too early in the season. The remainder of the set of models over-predict
the rainfall amounts received during summer months. In the future climate, the GFDL CM2.0 and GFDL
CM2.1 models predict less intense precipitation during the peak summer months,
while the other models project a slight increase in precipitation intensity.
Region 3 annual cycle. The observations are shown in black, the simulations for the 20th century are dotted and around 2100 solid lines.
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