KNMI issues climate scenarios for the Netherlands as input for impactstudies and adaptation to climate change. This webpage gives access to all relevant KNMI scenario information.

Together with the other consortia of the Knowledge for Climate Research Programme, KNMI, consortium leader of Theme 6: High Quality Climate Projections, organised the autumn school “Dealing with uncertainties in research for climate adaptation”. The autumn school was aimed at researchers in climate change: PhD students, junior and senior researchers, and was not limited to those affiliated with Knowledge for Climate.

The central theme of the course was dealing with and communicating about uncertainties, in climate- and socio-economic scenarios, in impact models and in the decision making process. Together we have worked on the development of a common frame of reference for the use of scenarios and dealing with uncertainties.

More information including presentations by lecturers, posters of the participants, the common frame of reference, summaries of the discussions and relevant literature can be found on the homepage of the Autumn School 2012.

In February 2012 the second "Newsletter climate scenarios" has been issued. This newsletter informs users of data about climate change in the Netherlands about the roadmap towards the next generation of KNMI climate scenarios (KNMInext). The newsletter also informs about the progress of the "Consortium on high quality climate projections for adaptation" (Theme 6). These two subjects are strongly linked: the research in Theme 6 is used to develop improved KNMInext climate scenarios. To subscribe to this newsletter, please send an email to the climate services desk. The newsletter will be published with a frequency of at least once per year.

On the 29th of July, KNMI has issued a new scenario publication entitled: "Climate change in the Netherlands; supplements to the KNMI'06 scenarios". In this publication we assess the implications of recent research results for the scenarios of 2006. Additional data are presented and the roadmap towards the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands is outlined.

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. Climate scenarios are not long-term weather forecasts: they are not concerned with predicting the weather on a certain day. Rather, they provide information on the characteristics of the average weather and the chance of weather extremes.
(FAQs on scenarios)

On 30 May 2006, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four climate scenarios for the Netherlands. These so-called KNMI'06 scenarios currently serve as the national standard in adaptation strategies.
(Current KNMI'06 scenarios)

The KNMI'06 climate scenarios published in 2006 are the most recent KNMI scenarios available for the Netherlands. They replace earlier generations scenarios, including the so called 'WB21-scenarios'. A new generation of updated scenarios will be available in 2013. Work is in progress towards these new KNMInext scenarios.
(Previous generation scenarios) (Future generation scenarios)

The KNMI'06 scenarios published in 2006 serve as the national standard in adaptation strategies. They are guiding in the process of climate proofing the Netherlands, in particular for water management. The KNMI'06 scenarios are intended for general use by a wide community. For specific users and applications, additional scenarios are required. For example, the Delta Committee scenario for sea level rise describes a plausible upper limit of the possibilities. It stands as an extreme scenario next to the KNMI'06 scenarios, which describe the range of likely outcomes. For some questions of long term safety against flooding it makes sense to consider such scenario based on a higher global temperature rise. Additional scenarios have been developed by both KNMI and other parties. A selection of additional scenarios is presented here, together with scenarios developed in neighbouring countries of Western Europe.
(Additional and foreign scenarios)

When using climate scenarios it is important to keep in mind the objective of a scenario. Guidance on the use of the KNMI scenarios for different applications will illustrate this point. This guidance material will be added in the near future together with some examples of best practices.
(Suggestions for usage)

Scenarios provide information for climate change in the future. This information on future changes is only meaningful in the context of present day conditions of climate variability and change. Therefore links are provided to climatological background information and studies of monitoring observed trends.
(Monitoring observed changes)

KNMI'06 climate scenarios help making The Netherlands climate proof. They are used in many application sectors of society. For some applications additional and tailored information packages have been generated. These packages typically combine scenario information and observational series.
(Tailoring for application sectors)