Autumn School 2012
Digital Reader
19-12-2012
Here we have collected a series of background documents; literature that is selected by the lecturers at the Autumn School to be relevant for dealing with uncertainties in all aspects of climate adaptation studies.
We have selected a small subset of these articles as ‘compulsory reading’.
The list provides links to the articles. Some of these are open source, others require a
subscription to the publishing journal.
If you have trouble downloading certain documents, please contact the organisers of the autumn school
(see homepage for details).
Compulsory reading
Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation –
a Scoping Study Copernicus Institue , Utrecht University
Box 1.2 Levels of uncertainty (Source: Walker et al. 2003, Janssen et al. 2005), p.12
Chapter 3, Decision making frameworks for adaptation to climate change, p. 23–43
Chapter 4, Methods and tools to assess climate change uncertainties relevant for adaptation, p. 44–58
Frame-based guide to situated decision-making on climate change Global Environmental Change 20 3, pp. 502–510
UK Climate Projections Science Report:
Climate change projections Met Office Hadley Centre , Exeter
Chapter 1, especially par. 1.1 and 1.3
Socio-economic
Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11) – Synthesis Climate Changes Spatial Planning , VU University, Amsterdam
Communicating Risk and Uncertainty Madingley Lectures , University of Cambridge
Day 1: Terminology and Types of uncertainties
Defining Uncertainty –
a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support Integrated Assesment 4 1, pp. 5–17
Uncertainty
Terminology (version 1.0) Knowledge for Climate report
Uncertainties in climate variables:
sources and relevance NDCM report
The future shocks:
On discontinuity and scenario development Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 , pp. 175–194
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90 , pp. 1095–1107
SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends Climate Dynamics , published online 30 May 2012
Scenarios in environmental and energy assessment Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Exploring pathways for sustainable water management
in river deltas in a changing environment Climatic Change , published online 23 March 2012
A Perspective-Based Simulation Game
to Explore Future Pathways of a Water-Society System Under Climate Change Simulation & Gaming , published online 12 June 2012
Designing Adaptive Policy Pathways
for Sustainable Water Management under Uncertainty: Lessons Learned from Two Cases Third International Engineering Systems Symposium CESUN 2012 , Delft University of Technology, 18–20 June 2012
Sustainable Delta game The serious game about water management under uncertainty , which will be played in the evening of the Day 1
Day 2: Dealing with uncertanties
More is not always better:
Coping with ambiguity in natural resources management Journal of Environmental Management 92 1, pp. 78–84
Frame-based guide to situated decision-making on climate change Global Environmental Change 20 3, pp. 502–510
Exploring the quality of evidence for complex and contested policy decisions Environmental Research Letters 3 , 024008
Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process –
A framework and guidance Environmental Modelling & Software 22 11, pp. 1542–1556
Agreeing to disagree:
uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC Climatic Change 92 1–2, pp. 1–29
De rol van onzekerheid in kennis in de PLAN-MER procedure van het Volkerak-Zoommeer Alterra , Wageningen University and Research Centre
E-learning course Knowledge Quality Assessment the Forest of Brocéliande e-learning website
Making uncertainty doable
in research commissioning KNMI colloquium , 6 September 2012
RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication:
Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment Copernicus Institue & RIVM , Utrecht/Bilthoven
Day 3: Communication of uncertainties
Uncertainty Communication –
Issues and good practice Copernicus Institute , Utrecht University
Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments:
views from the Dutch science-policy interface Environmental Science & Policy 11 7, pp. 627–641
Guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , Bilthoven
Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation –
a Scoping Study Copernicus Institue , Utrecht University
Evaluatie van Onzekerheidscommunicatie in
de Milieubalans 2005 Copernicus Institue , Utrecht University
Narrowing the climate information usability gap Nature Climate Change 2 , pp. 789–794
How to communicate uncertainty? Climate-Adapt, European Climate Adaptation Platform
