In 2007 the fourth assessment report (AR4) has appeared of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the period before this report, many new model simulations have been carried out. The analyses of these model results have been published in the scientific literature. Both the most recent model results and publications have been used for the construction of the KNMI'06 climate scenarios. This means that these scenarios use the same sources and results as the fourth IPCC-report.

A detailed description of the relation between the IPCC report and the KNMI'06 scenarios (in Dutch) is available, also covering IPCC emission scenarios (and MNP story lines).

Climate models use assumptions about future emissions of greenhouse gases and dust particles in the 21st century. These emission scenarios are connected to 'story lines' on how the world population, economy, and technology will develop. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) uses such story lines for the construction of socio-economic scenarios for the Netherlands. However, these story lines cannot be coupled 1 by 1 to the KNMI'06 climate scenarios. Uncertainty concerning future emissions of greenhouse gases and dust particles causes only a small part of the differences between the scenarios for 2050. Most of the uncertainty is caused by differences in model calculations due to our limited knowledge of the climate system. However, in general, the G and G+ scenarios both match better to the story lines B1 (strong Europe) and B2 (regional communities) of the mnp, whereas the W and W+ scenarios both match better to the story lines A1 (global economy) and A2 (transatlantic market).