Oceans react slowly to air temperature rise. Therefore, the sea level rise in the next few decades is rather insensitive to the rate of air temperature increase. Only after 2050 does the rate of global warming become more important.

Due to the slow reaction of the oceans, the sea level will continue to rise long after 2100, even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilise. In addition, if large scale melting of the large ice sheets also takes place, a sea level rise of a few meters within a few centuries can be expected.

Climate models show large differences among themselves with regard to the sensitivity of sea level rise to increased air temperatures. In order to represent this uncertainty, a range of sea level rise is given for each scenario, instead of only one number. The scenarios vary due to the differences in global temperature rise, but not due to the changes in air circulation.

The new KNMI'06 climate scenarios only present the absolute sea level rise, which is almost the same as the sea level rise compared to nap (Dutch height system). To calculate the relative sea level rise for a particular location, information on the local ground level subsidence should be added to the scenario data.

The absolute sea level rise along the Dutch coast around 2050 varies in the scenarios between 15 and 35 cm (Figure 16). Around 2100 the sea level rise varies between 35 and 85 cm. The sea level will continue to rise after 2100, and in 2300 it will amount to 1 m up to 2.5 m.