Climate scenarios present pictures of the anthropogenic changes in temperature, precipitation, wind, and sea level for a climatological (~30 year) period in the future. The KNMI'06 scenarios for 2050, for example, are representative for the climate around 2050 (between 2036 and 2065). The numbers per KNMI'06 climate scenario do not include information on year-to-year variability and longer-term natural fluctuations, which also occurred in the past. Especially for windstorms these natural fluctuations are relatively large compared with the changes in the scenarios. The climate in the baseline year 1990 for the KNMI'06 scenarios is described with data from 1976 to 2005. Also in this period the climate has changed (either natural or anthropogenic).

To provide the necessary historical context an overview of observed climate changes has been developed as part of the KNMI'06 scenarios project (see Further reading > KNMI'06 scenarios brochure). Observed changes worldwide and observed changes in the Netherlands are presented for each of the scenario variables: Temperature, Precipitation, Windstorms and Sea level.







More recent information on observed trends (and variability) in the Netherlands is brought together in the KNMI publication issued in 2008: The state of the climate (in Dutch)