De herhalingstijd van de temperatuurafwijking van de herfst 2006 onder de aanname dat het klimaat niet verandert (Bron: ECA&D/KNMI)
De herhalingstijd van de temperatuurafwijking van de herfst 2006 onder de aanname dat het klimaat niet verandert
Compared to the 1971-2000 average it was more than three degrees Celsius warmer from the North side of the Alps to southern Norway.

The year-to-year differences in autumn temperatures in this region are almost always less than two degrees, making this a highly unusual event. It was the warmest autumn on record in the United Kingdom , Belgium , the Netherlands , Denmark , Germany and Switzerland , with the records in Central England going back to 1659, in the Netherlands to 1706 and in Denmark to 1768. Also in most of Austria , southern Sweden , southern Norway and parts of Ireland the autumn was the warmest on record.

In fact, under the assumption that the climate does not change, the observed temperatures for 2006 would occur with a probability of less than once every 10000 years in a large part of Europe. The warming of the world, and also Europe , explains part of the temperature anomaly this autumn. Along the shores of the North Sea the lingering effects of the very high temperatures in July raised the temperatures even further. However, also the unusual weather played a large role. During almost the whole autumn a strong and persistent southerly flow brought warm air to the north of the Alps.

The occurrence of these weather patterns was still a very unusual event, which is expected to occur by chance no more than once every 200 to 500 years. Investigations are under way to see which factors contributed to the high temperature, and whether these are related to global warming or indeed a pure coincidence.

The impacts of the high autumn temperatures on society in Europe have not been reported to be very strong. However, the effects of this anomaly if it would have occurred in summer would have been similar to the disastrous summer of 2003, so that an understanding of the causes of these weather anomalies is essential.

Press report released by the European Climate Support Network of EUMETNET, the network of European Meteorological Services.

For more information:
Austria: ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik), Ingeborg Auer
Belgium: KMI/IRM (Koninklijk Meteorologisch Instituut / Institute Royal Météorologique), Luc Debontridder
Denmark: DMI (Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut), Niels Hansen
France: Météo France, Michel Schneider
Germany: DWD (Deutsche Wetterdienst), Gerhard Müller-Westermeier
Ireland: Met Éireann, Liam Keegan
Netherlands: KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), Harry Geurts & Monique Somers
Norway: Met.no (Meteorologisk Institut), Ketil Isaksen
Sweden: SMHI (Sveriges Meteorologiska ochHydrologiska Institut), Erik Liljas
Switzerland: MeteoSwiss, Christof Appenzeller
United Kingdom: Met Office, Wayne Elliott
Finland: FMI (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
Greece: HNMS (Hellenic National Meteorolocical Service)
Hungary : OMSZ (Meteorological Service of the Republic of Hungary)
Iceland: IMO (Icelandic Meteorological Office)
Italy: USAM (Ufficio Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia)
Luxembourg: SMAL (Service Météorologique du Luxembourg)
Portugal: IMP (Instituto de Meteorologia de Portugal)
Spain: INM (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia)
Cyprus: Cyprus Meteorological Service
Latvia: Latvian Environmental, Geological and Meteorological Agency