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Evaluating a 1981 temperature projection

Vague: projection of global mean temperature (Hansen et, Science, 1981, detail of Fig.6). The dots have been smoothed with a 5-yr running mean. Sharp: verification of the projection 1981-2011 using data from Hansen et al (Rev. Geophys., 2010, taken from climexp.knmi.nl). The purple line denotes a 10-yr running mean. All temperatures are expressed as anomalies relative to 1951-1980.
GJ van Oldenborgh, RJ Haarsma

A projection from 1981 for rising temperatures in a major science journal, at a time that the temperature rise was not yet obvious in the observations, has been found to agree well with the observations since then, underestimating the observed trend by about 30%, and easily beating a naive predictions of no-change or a linear continuation of trends. It is also a nice example of a statement based on theory that could be falsified and up to now has withstood the test. The “global warming hypothesis” has been developed according to the principles of sound science.

Bibliografische gegevens

GJ van Oldenborgh, RJ Haarsma. Evaluating a 1981 temperature projection
published, KNMI Kenniscentrum, 2012

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