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Projection and analysis of extreme wave climate

S Caires, V Swail, XL Wang

We use the non-homogeneous Poisson process to model extreme
values of ERA-40 significant wave height. The parameters of the model
are expressed as functions of the seasonal mean sea level pressure
anomaly and seasonal squared sea level pressure gradient index. Using
projections of the sea level pressure under three different forcing
scenarios by the Canadian coupled climate model, we are able
to make projections of the parameters of the non-homogeneous Poisson
process, determine trends in these projections, project return value
estimates of significant wave height up to the end of the 21st century
and assess their uncertainties. The uncertainty of estimates
associated with the non-homogeneous Poisson process estimates is
studied and compared with the homologous estimates obtained using a
non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value model.

Bibliografische gegevens

S Caires, V Swail, XL Wang. Projection and analysis of extreme wave climate
published, J. Climate, 2006, 19

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