In the period 1940-2000 historical estimates of atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, sulphate aerosols and volcanic aerosols are prescribed folowing Caspar Ammann. For the future values of the concentration of greenhouse gases, we have chosen the BAU (Business As Usual) scenario of NCAR which is similar to the SRES A1b scenario (for more info click here ). This scenario describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions and increased interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The attribute b stands for a balance across all available energy sources, not relying too heavily on one particular energy source. In the DCP meeting on march 21 we decided to use this scenario since it is in the middle of the range of all SRES scenarios.
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