Rhine: climate change impact on flood risks and navigation

With global warming progressing, an assessment of the hydrological impacts of future climate changes is a subject of increasing relevance. The river Rhine is an important hydrological system in Western Europe, with the world's highest traffic density for inland waterways. Its water is used for domestic consumption, irrigation, hydropower industry and prevention of salt-water intrusion in the low-land areas. Climate-related changes in stream flow, water availability and frequency and magnitude of peak flows will affect all these river-related activities, as well as flood defence structures such as dikes. The existing strategies for water management should evolve to adapt to new conditions.

In this case study, a variety of state-of-the-art climate change scenarios will be applied to a water balance model for the Rhine basin. Simulated changes in average and peak discharges of the Rhine will be translated into changes in flood risks. The potential consequencies of changes in low flows for navigation will be assessed.