PATCH: Patterns of Climate Change

Introduction
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Introduction

Based on the instrumental record, anthropogenic climate change is likely. This caused climate research to shift to more specific questions regarding climate change. On of the foci is the possible change in spatial patterns of climate variability: do the patterns change themselves, or do they remain similar, but do the probability of their occurence change? By determining these "patterns of climate change" it is possible to put changes on a regional scale in a global context.

The large scale circulation in the midlatitudes is partially driven by the tropics. The predictability of the circulation in the midlatitudes is limited due to the chaotic character of the circulation in the midlatitudes. However, it seems that slow trends in the North Atlantic region (on the order of decades) are driven from the tropics, which are much more predictable.

The Cimate and Seismology sector of KNMI aims to observe, understand and predict climate. Within this sector a program has started to investigate tropics-extratropics interaction. The program involves research scientists of the Variability Research (VO) and Oceanography Research (OO). In the Variability Research group there is expertise on "patterns of climate variability" and "probability of climate indices", especially in the North Atlantic/European regions. In the Oceanography group there is expertise on "ENSO", variability in the tropical Atlantic, teleconnections of interannual variability and explorative analysis of variability in climate observations.

Studies after tropics-extratropics interaction are done with numerical models of climate. A fast and flexible coupled climate model has been developed that consists of the atmosphere model SPEEDY and the ocean model MICOM.