Introduction

The Climate Variability Research department investigates the predictability and natural variability of climate. The research covers a wide range of topics, which can be summarised in a number of themes.

The Department started with the theme 'Skill prediction and ensemble forecasting'. In a joint project with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) an ensemble prediction system for the European area has been developed for the short and early medium range. A second theme is 'Dynamics of weather and climate'. In this theme predictability is studied in the more theoretical context of isentropic contour dynamics models and low-dimensional models of climate. Finite predictability may be intrinsic or related to model limitations.

Research on climate variability and climatic change is the third main theme of the Department. It is centred around ECBILT (KNMI General Circulation Model), an intermediate-complexity climate model developed within the Predictability Research Division. In climate modelling we co-operate with various Climate Research Departments (Atmospheric Research, Oceanographic Research and Climate Analysis), with our partners in CKO (Netherlands Centre for Climate Research) and with foreign institutes like the University of Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium. The second version of ECBILT, containing an improved radiation scheme, became available in 2000. ECBILT has been applied to the study of a large number of scientific questions described in 'Predictability and natural variability of climate' and 'Reconstruction and modelling of past climate'. Topics include decadal climate variability, the effect of a variable solar forcing, ensemble scenario studies, modelling of low-frequency variability and the comparison to palaeo data, and the interpretation of recorded signals at Milankovitch timescales.

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Greet de Graaf / Brigitta Kamphuis

Updated on July 10, 2002