Refereed Publications Climate Variability Research

A list of non-refereed and popular publicatons can be found HERE.

Submitted, accepted, in press

• Almeida, R.A.F. de, R.J. Haarsma, E.J. Campos. Impact of SST anomalies on the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.
• Haarsma, R.J., E.J. Campos, W. Hazeleger, A.R. Piola, C.A. Severijns and F. Molteni. Mechanisms of the dominant modes o coupled variability in the South Atlantic. A study with a hierarchy of ocean models. Accepted by J. Climate.
• Klein Tank, A.M.G., G.P. Können and F.M. Selten. Possible antropogenic warming signals in European daily temperature distribution. Accepted by Int. J. Climatology.
• Schaeffer, M., F.M. Selten, H. Goosse, J.D. Opsteegh. The influence of ocean convection patterns on high-latitude climate projections. Accepted by J. Climate.
• Schrier, G. van der, S.L. Weber, S.S. Drijfhout, J.A. Lowe. Low-frequency sea-level variability in the Atlantic. Accepted by Glob. Plan. Change. Also available as KNMI Preprint 03-14.
• A Selten, F.M., G. Branstator, H. Dijkstra and M. Kliphuis. Tropical origins for recent and future Northern Hemisphere Climate Changes. Accepted by Geophys. Res. Lett.
  
• Tuenter, E., S.L. Weber, F.J. Hilgen, L.J. Lourens and A. Ganopolski. Simulation of climate phase lags in the response to precession and obliquity forcing. Accepted by Climate Dyn. Also available as KNMI Preprint 2003-11.
• Verkleij, W.T.M., P.W.C. Vosbeek and A.R. Moenen. Manually adjusting a numerical weather analysis in terms of potential vorticity using three-dimensional variation data-assimilation. Submitted to Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.. Also available as KNMI Preprint 03-16.

2004

• Crommelin, D.T., J.D. Opsteegh and F. Verhulst, 2004. A mechanism for atmospheric regime behaviour. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1406-1419.
• Crommelin, D.T. , 2004. Observed non-diffusive dynamics in large-scale atmospheric flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2384-2396.
• Moolenaar, H. and F.M. Selten, 2004. Finding the effective parameters in atmospheric models; the Lorenz63 model as case study. Tellus, 56A, 47-55.
• Selten, F.M. and G. Branstator. Preferred regime transition routes and evidence for an unstable periodic orbit in a baroclinic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2267-2282.
• Tuenter, E., Modeling orbital induced variations in circum-Mediterranean climate. PhD Thesis. ISBN: 90-6464-855.7. pp 152.
• Verkleij, W.T.M. and T. Gerkema, 2004. Maximum entropy profiles. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, no. 8, 931-936.
• Weber, S.L., T.J. Crowley and G. van der Schrier, 2004. Solar irradiance forcing of centennial climate variability during the Holocene. Climate Dyn., 22, 539-553. doi 10.1007/s00382-004-0396-y.
• Weber, S.L. and J.M. Robinson, 2004. Daisyworld homeostasis and the earth system. In: Scientists debate Gaia - the next century, S.H. Schneider, J.R. Miller, E. Crist and P.J. Boston (eds), MIT Press, 377pp.

2003

• Achatz, U. and J.D. Opsteegh, 2003. Primitive equation based low-order models with seasonal cycle. I. Model construction. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 465-477.
• Achatz, U. and J.D. Opsteegh, 2003. Primitive equation based low-order models with seasonal cycle. II. Application to complexity and nonlinearity of large-scale atmosphere dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 478-490.
• Barkmeijer, J., T. Iversen and T.N. Palmer, 2003. Forcing singular vectors and other sensitive model perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 2401-2424.
• Crommelin, D.T., 2003. Regime transitions and heteroclinic connections in a barotropic atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 229-246.
• Crommelin, D.T., 2003. Nonlinear dynamics of atmospheric regime transitions. PhD Thesis, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands.
• Goosse, H., F.M. Selten, R.J. Haarsma and J.D. Opsteegh, 2003. Large sea-ice volume anomalies simulated in a coupled climate model. Climate Dyn., 20, 523-536. doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0290-4.
• Haarsma, R.J. E.J. Campos and F. Molteni, 2003. Atmospheric response to South Atlantic SST dipole. Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2003GL017829
  
• Hersbach, J.P.Th., R. Mureau, J.D. Opsteegh and J. Barkmeijer, 2003. Developments of a targeted ensemble system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 2027-2048.
• Lacorata, G., R.A. Pasmanter and A. Vulpiani, 2003. Markov-chain approach to a process with long-time memory. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 293-298.
• L'vov, V., R.A. Pasmanter, A. Pomyalov and I. Procaccia, 2003. Strong universality in forced and decaying turbulence in a shell model. Phys. Review, E 67, 066310-066319.
• Pasmanter, R.A. and A. Timmermann, 2003. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model. Nonlin. Proc. Geophy., 10, 197-210.
• Pasmanter, R.A., A. Timmermann, 2003. A cyclic Markov chain study of ENSO predictability. Chaos in Geophysical Flows, (Reviewed) Proceedings of the ISSAOS 2001 workshop, L'Aquila, Italy, 181-207.
• Plassche, O. van de, G. van der Schrier, S.L. Weber, W.R. Gehrel and W. Wright, 2003. Sea-level variability in the northwest Atlantic during the past 1500 years: A delayed response to solar forcing? Geophys.Res.Lett., 30, 17558-17561.
• Ronda, R.J., R.J. Haarsma., A.A.M. Holtslag, 2003. Representing the atmospheric boundary layer in climate models of intermediate complexity. Climate Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0338-0. (text+figs.pdf)
• Trieling, R.R. and W.T.M. Verkleij, 2003. Synoptic development in a two-and-half layer contour dynamics system, part 1: model formulation and zonal basis states. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 913-935.
• Tuenter, E., S.L. Weber, F.J. Hilgen and L.J. Lourens, 2003. The response of the African summer monsoon to remote and local forcing due to precession and obliquity. Glob. Plan. Change., 36, 219-235.
• Voogt, M.H., 2003. Synthetic water vapour images from the HIRLAM model using a radiative transfer model. KNMI Intern Rapport; IR 03-07.
• Weber, S.L. and J. Oerlemans, 2003. Holocene glacier variability: three case studies using an intermediate-complexity climate model. The Holocene, 13, 353-363.

2002

• Claussen, M., L.A. Mysak, A.J. Weaver, M. Crucifix, T. Fichefet, M.-F. Loutre, S.L. Weber, J. Alcamo, V.A. Alexeev, A. Berger, R. Calov, A. Ganopolski, H. Goosse, G. Lohman, F. Lunkeit, I.I. Mokhov, V. Petoukhov, P. Stone, Zh. Wang, 2002. Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity: Closing the Gap in the Spectrum of Climate System Models. Climate Dyn., 18, 579-586.
• Crommelin, D., 2002. Homoclinic dynamics: a scenario for atmospheric ultra-low-frequency variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1533-1549. (Abstract) (postscript)
• Goosse, H., F.M. Selten, R.J. Haarsma and J.D. Opsteegh, 2002. A mechanism of decadal variability of the sea-ice volume in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dyn., 19, 61-84.
• Goosse, H., H. Renssen, F.M. Selten, R.J. Haarsma and J.D. Opsteegh, 2002. Potential causes of abrupt climate events: A numerical study with a three-dimensional climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1860, doi: 10.1029/2002.
• Schaeffer, M., F.M. Selten, H. Goosse and J.D. Opsteegh, 2002. Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 29, 1767, doi: 10.1029/2002.
• Schrier, G. van der, S.L. Weber and S.S. Drijfhout, 2002. Sea level changes in the North Atlantic by solar forcing and internal variability. Climate Dyn., 19, 435-447.
• Veen, L. van, 2002. Time scale interaction in low-order climate models. PhD Thesis, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands.

2001

• Drijfhout, S.S., A. Kattenberg, R.J. Haarsma and F.M. Selten, 2001. The role of the ocean in midlatitude, interannual to decadal timescale climate variability of a coupled model. J. Climate, 14, 3617-3630.
• Goosse, H., F.M. Selten, R.J. Haarsma and J.D. Opsteegh, 2001. Decadal variability in high northern latitudes as simulated by an intermediate complexity climate model. Ann. of Glaciology, 33, 525-532.
• Haarsma, R.J., J.D. Opsteegh, F.M. Selten and X. Wang, 2001. Rapid transitions and ultra-low frequency behaviour in a 40kyr integration with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. Climate Dyn., 17, 559-570.
• Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, K. Briffa, J. Cole, M.K. Hughes, J.M. Jones, J.T. Overpeck, H. von Storch, H. Wanner, S.L. Weber, M. Widmann, 2001. Reconstructing the Climate of the Late Holocene, Eos, 82, 553.
• Pasmanter, R.A. and Xue-Li Wang, 2001. Trying a metric on atmospheric flows. (Reviewed) Proceedings of the IUTAM Symposium on Geometry and Statistics of Turbulence, Hayama, Japan, 1-5 November 1999. Eds Kambe, Nakano and Miyauchi, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
• Schrier, G. van der, and G.J.M. Versteegh, 2001. Internally and externally forced climate variability: A dynamical systems approach using the Central England Temperature record. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, (5), 759.
• Timmermann, A., H. Voss and R.A. Pasmanter, 2001. Empirical dynamical system modelling of ENSO using nonlinear inverse techniques. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 1579-1598.
• Veen, L. van, J.D. Opsteegh and F. Verhulst, 2001. The dynamics of a low order coupled ocean-atmoshpere model. Tellus, 53A, 616-628.
• Verkleij, W.T.M., 2001. Salmon's Hamiltonian approach to balanced flow applied to a one layer isentropic model of the atmosphere. Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc., 127, 579-600.
• Weber, S.L., 2001. On Homeostasis in Daisyworld. Climatic Change, 48, 465-485.
• Weber, S.L., 2001. The impact of orbital forcing on the climate of an intermediate-complexity coupled model. Glob. Plan. Change, 30, 7-12.

2000

• Capel, H.W. and R.A. Pasmanter, 2000. Evolution of the vorticity-area density during the formation of coherent structures in two-dimensional flows. Phys. Fluids, 12, 2514-2521. Abstract
• Haarsma, R.J., S.S. Drijfhout, J.D. Opsteegh and F.M. Selten, 2000. The impact of solar forcing on the variability in a coupled climate model. In: Solar Variability and Climate. Eds. Friis-Christensen et al. Space Science Series of ISSI, 94, 287-294, Kluwer Publishers, Dordrecht, ISSN 0038-6308.
• Haarsma, R.J., F.M. Selten and J.D. Opsteegh, 2000. On the mechanism of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. J. Climate, 13, 1461-1480. Abstract
• Hersbach, J.P.Th., 2000. Composition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 559-570. Abstract
• Hersbach, J.P.Th., R. Mureau, J.D. Opsteegh and J. Barkmeijer, 2000. A short to early-medium range ensemble prediction system for the European area. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3501-3519.
• Timmermann, A. and G. Lohmann. Noise-induced transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 1891-1900.
• Verkleij, W.T.M., 2000. On the vertical velocity in an isentropic layer. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 263-274.
• Vosbeek, P.W.C., H.J.H. Clercx and R.M.M. Mattheij, 2000. Acceleration of contour dynamics simulations with a hierarchical-element method. J.Comput.Phys., 161, 287-311.

1999

• Barkmeijer, J., R. Buizza and T.N. Palmer, 1999. 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2333-2351.
• Brands, H., S.R. Maassen and H.J.H. Clercx, 1999. Statistical-mechanical predictions and Navier-Stokes dynamics of two-dimensional flows on a bounded domain. Physical Review E., 60, 3, 2864-2874.
• Brands H., P.H. Chavanis, R.A. Pasmanter and J. Sommeria, 1999. Maximum entropy versus minimum enstrophy vortices. Physics of Fluids, 11, 3465-3477.
• Drijfhout, S.S., R.J. Haarsma, J.D. Opsteegh and F.M. Selten, 1999. Solar-induced versus internal climate variability in a coupled Climate Model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 205-208. Abstract
• Grötzner, A., M. Latif, A. Timmermann and R. Voss, 1999. Interannual to Decadal predictability in a coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation model. J. Climate, 12, 2601-2624.
• Haarsma, R.J., F.M. Selten, J.D. Opsteegh, Q. Liu and A. Kattenberg, 1999. North Atlantic decadal climate variability in a coupled atmosphere ocean sea-ice model of moderate complexity. In Beyond El Nino: Decadal and interdecadal climate variability. (Ed. A. Navarra) Springer Verlag, 277-301. Abstract
• Hersbach, J.P.Th. and P.A.E.M. Janssen, 1999. Improvement of the short fetch behaviour in the wave ocean model (WAM). J. Atm. Ocean. Techn., 16, 884-892.
• Johnson, H.K., H.J. Vested, J. Hojtrup, S.E. Larsen and J.P.Th. Hersbach, 1999. On the dependence of sea surface roughness on wind waves. J. Atmos. Ocean. Techn., 16, no. 11, Part 2, 1780-1796.
• Lenderink, G. and R.J. Haarsma, 1999. On the mechanism of decadal oscillations in a coarse resolution ocean model. Atmosphere-Oceans, 37, 179-202. Abstract
• Oortwijn, J., 1999. Growth properties of optimal transition perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2491-2511.
• Shabalova, M.V. and S.L. Weber, 1999. Patterns of temperature variability on multidecadal to centennial timescales. J. Geophys. Res., 104, D24, 31023-31041.
• Selten, F.M., R.J. Haarsma and J.D. Opsteegh, 1999. On the Mechanism of North Atlantic decadal variability. J. Climate, 12, 1956-1973. Abstract
• Timmermann, A., 1999. Detecting the nonstationary response of ENSO to Greenhouse warming. J. Atmos. Sciences, 56, 2313-2325.
• Timmermann, A., M. Latif, A. Grötzner and R. Voss, 1999. Modes of climate variability as simulated by a coupled general circulation model. Part I: Enso-like climate variability and its low frequency modulation. Climate Dynamics, 15, 605-618.
• Timmermann, A., J. Oberhuber, A. Backer, M. Esch, M. Latif and E. Roeckner, 1999. Increased El Nino frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature, 398, 694-696. Abstract
• Weber, S.L. and H. von Storch, 1999. Future Challenges: Simulating Climatic Millennial Timescales and Combining Paleoclimatic Evidence and GCM-based Dynamical Knowledge (workshop report). EOS, 80, 380. Text

1998

• Barkmeijer, J., M. van Gijzen and F. Bouttier, 1998. Singular Vectors and estimates of the Analysis Error Covariance Metric. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 1695-1713.
• Brands, H., 1998. Coherent structures and statistical mechanics in two-dimensional flows. PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Brands, H., J. Stulemeyer, R.A. Pasmanter and T.J. Schep, 1998. Response to "Comment on 'A mean field prediction of the asymptotic state of decaying 2D turbulence'. Physics of Fluids, 10 (5), 1238.
• Oortwijn, J., 1998. Predictability of the onset of blocking and strong zonal flow regimes. J. Atmos. Sciences, 55-6, 973-994.
• Oortwijn, J., 1998. Predictability of weather regimes transitions. PhD Thesis, University of Wageningen, The Netherlands.
• Opsteegh, J.D., R.J. Haarsma, F.M. Selten and A. Kattenberg, 1998. ECBILT, a dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models. Tellus, 50A, 348-367. Abstract
• Palmer, T.N., R. Gelaro, J. Barkmeijer and R. Buizza, 1998. Singular vectors, metrics and adaptive observations, J. Atmos. Sci, 54, 633-653.
• Pasmanter, R.A. and X. Wang, 1998. Experimenting with a similarity measure for atmospheric flows. KNMI Scientific Report, 98-03.
• Pasmanter, R.A., 1998. Metric structures of laminar flows, Physica A, 258, 311-328.
• Shabalova, M.V. and S.L. Weber, 1998. Seasonality of low-frequency variability in early-instrumental European temperatures. Geophys. Res. Letters, 25, 3859-3862. Abstract
• Weber, S.L., 1998. Parameter sensitivity of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Climate Dynamics, 14, 201-212. Abstract

1991-1997

A list of refereed publicatons for 1991-1997 as well as PhD theses can be found HERE.

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