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Publicaties, presentaties en andere activiteiten
Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave
2012
by F.E.L. Otto (University of Oxford), N. Massey (University of Oxford), G.J. van Oldenborgh (KNMI), R.G. Jones (Met Office Hadley Centre), M.R. Allen (University of Oxford)
Abstract
<p>In the summer 2010 Western Russia was hit by an extraordinary heat wave, with the region experiencing by far the warmest July since records began. Whether and to what extent this event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is controversial. Dole et al. (2011) report the 2010 Russian heat wave was `mainly natural in origin' whereas Rahmstorf and Coumou (2011) write that with a probability of 80% `the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred' without the large-scale climate warming since 1980, most of which has been attributed to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter explicitly state that their results `contradict those of Dole et al. (2011)'. Here we use the results from a large ensemble simulation experiment with an atmospheric general circulation model to show that there is no substantive contradiction between these two papers, in that the same event can be both mostly internally-generated in terms of magnitude and mostly externally-driven in terms of occurrence-probability. The difference in conclusion between these two papers illustrates the importance of specifying precisely what question is being asked in addressing the issue of attribution of individual weather events to external drivers of climate.</p>
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Return periods of temperature-geopotential height conditions in the model for the 1960s (green) and the 2000s (blue) and in ERA-Interim for 1979-2010 (black). The vertical black arrow shows the anomaly of the Russian heat wave 2010 (black horizontal line) compared to the July mean temperatures of the 1960s (dashed line). The vertical red arrow gives the increase in the magnitude of the heat wave due to the shift of the distribution whereas the horizontal red arrow shows the change in the return period.
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Bibliografische gegevens
| Otto, F.E.L., N. Massey, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R.G. Jones en M.R. Allen, Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave Abstract (html) Volledige tekst (pdf: 572 KB) |  |
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