Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut; Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu

Publicaties, presentaties en andere activiteiten
Predicting ground motion from induced earthquakes in geothermal areas
2013
by J. Douglas (BRGM), B. Edwards (ETH), B. Mena Cabrera (ETH), V. Convertito (INGV), A. Tramelli (INGV)D. Kraaijpoel (KNMI)N. Maercklin (AMRA)N. Sharma (AMRA)G. De Natale (INGV)
Abstract
<p>Induced seismicity from anthropogenic sources can be a significant nuisance to a local<br /> population and, in extreme cases, can lead to damage to vulnerable structures. One<br /> type of induced seismicity that is of particular recent concern, and which in some cases<br /> is a limit on development of a potentially-important clean energy source, is that<br /> associated with geothermal power production. A key requirement for the accurate<br /> assessment of seismic hazard (and eventually risk) is a ground-motion prediction<br /> equation (GMPE), predicting the level of earthquake shaking (in terms of, for example,<br /> peak ground acceleration) given an earthquake of a certain magnitude at a particular<br /> distance. For geothermal-related seismicity, practically no such models currently exist<br /> and consequently the evaluation of seismic hazard in the vicinity of geothermal power<br /> plants is associated with high uncertainty.<br /> Various ground-motion datasets (from Basel, Geysers, Hengill, Roswinkel, Soultz and<br /> Voerendaal) were compiled and processed and the moment magnitudes for all events<br /> recomputed homogeneously. These data are used to statistically test the similarity<br /> between ground motions from induced and natural earthquakes. In addition, the ability<br /> to extrapolate recent GMPEs derived for natural seismicity to make them applicable for<br /> ground-motion prediction close to the source of (generally small) induced shocks is<br /> examined. Subsequently stochastic models are developed based on a single corner<br /> frequency and with parameters constrained by the available data. Predicted ground<br /> motions from these models are fitted with functional forms to obtain easy-to-use<br /> GMPEs that account for epistemic uncertainties as well as being associated with<br /> standard deviations characterizing the aleatory variability. As an example, we<br /> demonstrate the potential use of these models using data from Campi Flegrei. In<br /> addition, we study correlations between instrumental ground-motion parameters and<br /> macroseismic intensities and recommend that intensities are predicted directly rather<br /> than through such correlations, which underpredict observed intensities of induced<br /> events.</p>
Bibliografische gegevens
Douglas, J., B. Edwards, B. Mena Cabrera, V. Convertito, A. Tramelli, D. Kraaijpoel, N. Maercklin, N. Sharma en G. De Natale, Predicting ground motion from induced earthquakes in geothermal areas
geaccepteerd, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2013.
Abstract (html)