Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Ministery of Infrastructure and the Environment

Publications, presentations and other activities
Understanding El Niņo in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges
2009
by E. Guilyardi (LOCEAN/IPSL, U. Reading), A. Wittenberg (GFDL), A. Fedorov (Yale University), M. Collins (UK Met Office), C. Wang (NOAA/AOML)A. Capotondi (U. Colorado/NOAA)G.J. van Oldenborgh (KNMI)
Abstract

Anticipating the characteristics of El Niņo occurrence, amplitude and remote impacts over the next ten to hundred years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Complex ocean-atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) are routinely used both to analyze El Niņo mechanisms and teleconnections and to predict its evolution on a broad range of timescales. The ability to simulate El Niņo as an emergent property of these models has largely improved over the last few years. Nevertheless, diverse model simulations of El Niņo contribute to large uncertainties in our ability to simulate and explain changes in El Niņo characteristics. A review of the several factors that contribute to this diversity, as well as potential means to make progress as a community, are presented.

Biblographic data
Guilyardi, E., A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang, A. Capotondi and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Understanding El Niņo in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2009, 90, 325-340, doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2387.1.
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