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Research
Global Climate Division
ENSO and Seasonal Forecasts
The ENSO and Seasonal Forecasts group investigates the theory and predictability of El Nino and La Nina, and researches the seasonal forecasts of the average weather from one month to one year ahead.
Evolution of SST in the equatorial Pacific over 1997-now (source: CPC) Some publications about ENSO
| Oldenborgh, G.J. van, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters and W. Hazeleger, Skill in the trend and internal variability in a multi-model decadal prediction ensemble Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf) |  | | Philip, S.Y., M. Collins, G.J. van Oldenborgh and B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, The role of atmosphere and ocean physical processes in ENSO Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 2 MB) | | | Guilyardi, E., A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang, A. Capotondi and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Understanding El Niņo in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 2 MB) | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van, L.A. te Raa, H.A. Dijkstra and S.Y. Philip, Frequency- or amplitude-dependent effects of the Atlantic meridional overturning on the tropical Pacific Ocean Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 3 MB) | | | Philip, S.Y. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Atmospheric properties and the ENSO cycle: models versus observations Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 2 MB) | | | Philip, S.Y. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Significant atmospheric nonlinearities in the ENSO cycle Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 705 KB) | | | Bracco, A., F. Kucharski, F. Molteni, W. Hazeleger and C. Severijns, A recipe for simulating the interannual variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and its relation with ENSO | | | Sterl, A., G.J. van Oldenborgh, W. Hazeleger and G. Burgers, On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 6 MB) | | | Coelho, C.A.S., D.B. Stephenson, M.A. Balmaseda, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 2 MB) | | | Philip, S.Y. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 522 KB) | | | Burgers, G., F.F. Jin and G.J. van Oldenborgh, The simplest ENSO recharge oscillator Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 108 KB) | | | Hazeleger, W., C. Severijns, R. Seager and F. Molteni, Tropical Pacific-driven decadal energy transport variability J. Climate, 2005, 18, 12, 2037-2051. | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van, Comment on 'Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events' by P.-P. Mathieu, R. T. Sutton, B. Dong and M. Collins J. Climate, 2005, 18, 14, 2770-2772. Complete text (pdf: 257 KB) | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van, M.A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T.N. Stockdale and D.L.T. Anderson, Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years? Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 234 KB) | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van, S.Y. Philip and M. Collins, El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 2 MB) | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van, M.A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T.N. Stockdale and D.L.T. Anderson, Evaluation of atmospheric fields from the ECMWF seasonal forecasts over a 15 year period J. Climate, 2005, 18, 5188-5198. Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 3 MB) | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van and G. Burgers, Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 1 MB) | | | Zelle, H., G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Burgers and H. Dijkstra, El Niño and Greenhouse warming: Results from Ensemble Simulations with the NCAR CCSM J. Climate, 2005, 18, 22, 4669-4683. Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 3 MB) | | | Burgers, G. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, On the impact of local feedbacks in the Central Pacific on the ENSO cycle J. Climate, 2003, 16, 14, 2396-2407. Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 590 KB) | | | Pasmanter, R.A. and A. Timmermann, Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model Nonlinear Proc. Geophys, 2003, 10, 197-210. Abstract (html) | | | Dijkstra, H.A. and G. Burgers, Fluid dynamics of El Niņo variability Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 1 MB) | | | Martis, A., G.J. van Oldenborgh and G. Burgers, Predicting rainfall in the Dutch Caribbean - more than El Niño? Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 699 KB) | | | Hazeleger, W., M. Visbeck, M.A. Cane, A. Karspeck and N. Naik, Decadal upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Pacific Abstract (html) | | | Timmermann, A., R.A. Pasmanter and H.U. Voss, Empirical dynamical system modeling of ENSO using nonlinear inverse techniques J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001, 31, 1579-1598. Abstract (html) | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van, G. Burgers and A. Klein Tank, On the El-Niņo Teleconnection to Spring Precipitation in Europe Int. J. Climatology, 2000, 20, 565-574. Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 677 KB) | | | Burgers, G., The El Niņo stochastic oscillator Abstract (html) | | | Oldenborgh, G.J. van, G. Burgers, S. Venzke, C. Eckert and R. Giering, Tracking down the ENSO delayed oscillator with an adjoint OGCM Mon. Wea. Rev., 1999, 127, 1477-1496. Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 2 MB) | | | Stockdale, T., M. Latif, G. Burgers and J.O. Wolfff, Some sensitivities of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM Abstract (html) | |
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