EARTH-SYSTEM INITIALIZATION for DECADAL PREDICTIONS Workshop

4-6 November 2009, KNMI, De Bilt, the Netherlands

Program:

• 09:30-10:00 Registration, Coffee/Tea
• 10:00-10:15 Welcome and logistics
• 10:15-10:30 Goals and scope of the workshop

• 10:30-11:15 Overview of decadal potential Predictability (G. Boer, CCCma)
• 11:30-12:15 Overview of decadal predictions (D. Smith, UKMO)
• 12:30-13:30 Lunch

• 13:30-14:00 The ocean (E. Harrison, NOAA)
• 14:00-14:30 Cryosphere (L.-A. Breivik, NMI)
• 14:30-15:00 Coffee/Tea
• 15:00-15:30 Atmospheric composition & aerosols (D. Smith, UKMO)
• 15:30-16:00 Overview of re-analyses (A. Köhl, Univ Hamburg)
• 16:00-16:30 Critical assessment of producing analyses (M. Balmaseda, ECMWF)
• 16:30-18:00 Poster session and drinks

• 9:30-10:15 Fundamentals of initialisation of non-linear systems (L. Smith, LSE)
• 10:15-11:00 Overview initialisation techniques (N. Keenlyside, IFM-GEOMAR)
• 11:00-11:30 Coffee/Tea
• 11:30-12:15 Overview perturbation techniques (B. Kirtman, RSMAS)
• 12:15-13:30 Lunch
• 13:30-15:00 Showcases
• Decadal hindcast and prediction experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, MIROC (M. Ishii, JAMSTEC)
• Preliminary tests at IPSL (J. Mignot & E. Guilyardi, IPSL/LOCEAN)
• Estimation of optimal perturbations for decadal climate predictions (E. Hawkins, Univ Reading)

• 15:00-15:30 Memory in the ocean (H. Drange, Univ. Bergen)
• 15:40-16:00 Large climate events in the 20th century (G.J. van Oldenborgh, KNMI)
• 16:00-17:30 Discussion break out groups
• Break out: Moderator: M. Balmaseda, ECMWF

Rapporteur: R. Haarsma, KNMI

• Break out: Moderator: B. Kirtman, RSMAS

Rapporteur: L. Terray, CERFACS

• Break out: Moderator: B. Sloyan, CSIRO

Rapporteur: G.J. van Oldenborgh, KNMI

• 17:30-18:00 Short report chairs on progress in plenary

Dinner in Utrecht

• 9:00-10:30 Continue discussions, directed at new, challenging, innovative aspects
• 10:30-11:00 Coffee/Tea
• 11:00-12:00 Plenary discussion new research directions initialisation
• 12:00-13:00 Plenary discussion new research directions perturbation
• 13:00-14:00 Lunch
• 14:00-15:00 Plenary discussion new research directions verification
• 15:00-15:30 Concluding remarks
• 15:30-17:00 Adjourn and drinks




Program committee

Wilco Hazeleger, Ben Kirtman, Detlef Stammer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Axel Timmermann, Laurent Terray, Bernadette Sloyan.

Brigitta Kamphuis: kamphuis@knmi.nl

Updated: 16th December 2009