Climate scenarios for water-related and coastal impact
A Concerted Action Towards the Improved Understanding and Application of Results from Climate Model Experiments in European Climate Change Impact Research
|
|
ECLAT-2 Blue Workshop (EW-3) Climate scenarios for water-related and coastal impact |
|
May 10-12, 2000, The Netherlands
Hosted by:
The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Convened by:
Jules Beersma (KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands)
Mike Hulme (CRU, Norwich, UK)
Eigil Kaas (DMI, Copenhagen, Denmark)
David Viner (CRU, Norwich, UK)
Updated: Tuesday, 09-May-2000 10:07:20 UTC
| 09 May 2000: |
The earlier version of Bárdossy's paper contained an error
(pages 17-23 were missing).
The corrected paper: Stochastic downscaling methods to assess the hydrological impacts of Climate Change on River Basin Hydrology (A. Bárdossy, IWS, Germany) |
| 08 May 2000: |
All papers are available now in PDF format.
Please make your own hard copies.
The number of hard copies available at the workshop
will be limited.
New paper: Stochastic downscaling methods to assess the hydrological impacts of Climate Change on River Basin Hydrology (corrected paper) (A. Bárdossy, IWS, Germany) |
| 08 May 2000: |
New paper:
Climate change effects on storm surges: methodologies and results (R. Flather and J. Williams, POL, UK) |
| 08 May 2000: |
Updated paper:
Scenarios for extra-tropical storm and wave activity: methodologies and results (E. Kaas and U. Andersen, DMI, Denmark) |
| 04 May 2000: |
KNMI paper now available in PDF format:
Development of daily precipitation scenarios at KNMI (T.A. Buishand and B.-R. Beckmann, KNMI, The Netherlands) |
| 03 May 2000: |
As a result of a few cancelations there is room for a few more
participants. Please spead the news.
|
| 03 May 2000: |
Two keynote papers are now available in PDF format and
can be downloaded from here:
Climatological changes in storm surges and river discharges: the impact on flood protection and salt intrusion in the Rhine-Meuse delta (P. Jacobs, G. Blom and M. van der Linden, RIZA, The Netherlands) Scenarios for extra-tropical storm and wave activity: methodologies and results (updated version, 08 May 2000) (E. Kaas and U. Andersen, DMI, Denmark) |
| 02 May 2000: |
There will be no workshop fee.
Lunches and dinners are covered by the EU.
|
This workshop will review the construction and application of climate change scenarios in areas related to water (both fresh water and salt water sectors) and coastal indicators. Specific topics to be covered will include the specification and incorporation of (sub) daily weather extremes in climate change scenarios, the use of weather generators and dynamical/statistical downscaling techniques, and the combined effects of changes in sea-level and storms on storm surges.
Four pre-circulated keynote (discussion) papers will be presented during the workshop. Their function is to introduce the topics and provide material for discussions in six small working groups. These discussions are a key activity of the workshop. In two sessions these working groups will address issues from different viewpoints. The first session will cover the problem sectorally, by focussing on the specific needs for impact assessments in: hydrology, storm/coastal indicators and those on the interface of fresh- and salt-water. The second session will address the various methodologies to construct climate change scenarios at different spatial and temporal resolution based on coarse-resolution GCMs. By bringing together specialists from: the climate community (climate/ocean modellers, climatologists, downscalers), the "water impact community" (hydrologists, water resource managers), statisticians/uncertainty specialists and stakeholders, we aim to provide a guideline both for the application of climate scenarios in current and future water related impact assessments and for further development of regional and local climate change scenarios.
The workshop findings and recommendations will be made available through the Workshop Proceedings (in the ECLAT-2 Concerted Action series) in which the four keynote papers, summaries of the Working Group discussions and an overview of the concluding discussion and recommendations are brought together.
Invited contributions
Four Keynote (discussion) papers (40 min)
One Keynote paper on Hydrology, one on the interface of Hydrology and Coastal impacts and two papers on the methodologies for generating climate scenarios for coastal impacts
Preparation: Up to 5000 words by April 30, 2000 (then pre-circulated)
| A) |
Stochastic downscaling methods to assess the hydrological impacts of
Climate Change on River Basin Hydrology (A. Bárdossy, IWS, Germany) Abstract |
| B) |
Climatological changes in storm surges and river discharges:
the impact on flood protection and salt intrusion in the Rhine-Meuse delta (P. Jacobs et al., RIZA, The Netherlands) Abstract new: HYPERLINK TO THE FULL PAPER new: FULL PAPER (PDF Format) |
| C) |
Scenarios for extra-tropical storm and wave activity: methodologies and results (E. Kaas and U. Andersen, DMI, Denmark) Abstract new: FULL PAPER (PDF Format) |
| D) | Climate change effects on storm surges: methodologies and results (R. Flather and J. Williams, POL, UK) Abstract |
Two breakout sessions consisting of three Working Groups.
First breakout session: sector oriented
1A) Climate needs and availability of climate scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. What is ideal and what is feasible? (R.Wilby - Confirmed)
1B) Climate needs and availability of climate scenarios for coastal impact assessments. What is ideal and what is feasible? (J. de Ronde - Confirmed)
1C) Climate needs and availability of climate scenarios at the interface of hydrological (fresh-water) and coastal (salt-water) impacts. Do we need a bridge? (H. Middelkoop - Confirmed)
Second breakout session: methodology oriented
2A) What is the usefulness of "artificial scenarios" (to perform sensitivity studies) in the different impact sectors compared to ready-made scenarios (derived directly from climate models) and tailored (e.g. downscaled) scenarios? How do we deal with the uncertainty of climate scenarios? What about other uncertainties in the uncertainty cascade for impact assessments? (L. Mortsch - Confirmed)
2B) What are the strengths and weaknesses of different downscaling methodologies (dynamical/empirical downscaling, weather generators, simple scaling)? (C. Kilsby - Confirmed)
2C) Incorporation of (natural) variability and extremes (e.g. 100-yr event) in climate change scenarios. And how important are changes in variability and extremes. What is feasible and what is required? (M. New - Confirmed)
Conference
Centre "Ernst Sillem Hoeve" (website in Dutch) in Lage Vuursche,
The Netherlands (within 10 km of KNMI).
The conference centre will also accommodate rooms, lunches and diners.
It is nicely situated in a forest and we hope that this situation helps to
create a quiet and relaxed atmosphere from which the workshop can benefit.
Contact details:
Ernst Sillem Hoeve
Soestdijkerweg 10b
Lage Vuursche
3734 MH Den Dolder
The Netherlands
Tel. +31-35-666-8541
Fax. +31-35-666-8443
E-mail: sales@esh.nl
A pre-reservation has been made for 40 people including rooms (2 nights) and food (3 lunches and 2 dinners).
The prices for the accomodation are Dfl 135.- (61.40 EURO) for the two nights during the workshop and Dfl 166.80 (75.80 EURO) for any additional nights (single room, including tax and breakfast).
The costs for the accomodation should be paid at departure in cash or with creditcard (VISA or Eurocard/Mastercard).
Due to budget limitations we may have to raise a small workshop fee that covers part of the expenses (rent, lunches and dinners).
If you are interested to participate in the workshop, please contact the workshop organiser Jules Beersma by email: beersma@knmi.nl
Travel schedule Schiphol Airport to Conference Centre Ernst Sillem Hoeve.
How to reach Conference Centre Ernst Sillem Hoeve by car?