The 1 March 2008 case

Evaluation

On February 29 2008 a depression moved east over the Atlantic around 62°N. When it was moving from Faroe towards Norway, a secondary low developed early on March 1 just west of the Skagerrak, which moved slowly eastward while the original depression moved north along the Norwegian coast.

Water levels reached the storm surge level in the North of The Netherlands (Delfzijl, Harlingen and Den Helder) late in the morning and in the afternoon of March 1 and warning level in Hoek van Holland halfway the morning.

Storm surge forecasts

Storm surge forecasts from WAQUA/DCSM on Hirlam 7 were severely overestimating the actual surge in a number of locations, especially Hoek van Holland and Huibertgat.
Comparison with in-situ and scatterometer observations shows that the wind from Hirlam over the North Sea is generally 5–10 kts too high.
The ECMWF deterministic forecast winds compare better to the observations and hence give better surge forecasts, although no 10-m wind correction has been applied.

More information

The menu on the right provides access to more information on this storm event: model forecasts for water levels, and comparisons between model winds and observations both in-situ and from scatterometers.