Statistical correction of periodic errors in sea level forecasts

Cisco de Bruijn, Hans de Vries and Janet Wijngaard

Already for some time discrepancies between the forecasts and observed water levels have been reported which seem to have a periodic nature.
In this report, the periodic structure of the forecast errors is analyzed in more detail and a set of regression equations to compensate for these systematic errors is developed for the main locations along the coast of The Netherlands.

The report is available as a postscript file.

The report is also available on-line in html format:

1 Introduction
2 Method
The statistical regression
Determination of the predictors
Identification of harmonic tidal components
3 Results
The predictors
The regression
4 Discussion
5 Conclusions and recommendations
Acknowledgements
References

The figures from the report are separately available. There are also figures which have not been included in the report (only available from within KNMI). They compare the bias, standard deviation and rms before and after correction as a function of time from 1994:

Vlissingen: from the report, extra for high tides, extra for low tides
Roompot Buiten: from the report, extra for high tides, extra for low tides
Hoek van Holland: from the report, extra for high tides, extra for low tides
IJmuiden: from the report, extra for high tides, extra for low tides
Den Helder: from the report, extra for high tides, extra for low tides
Harlingen: from the report, extra for high tides, extra for low tides
Delfzijl: from the report, extra for high tides, extra for low tides

The bibliographic information of the report (in BibTeX format) is:

@techreport{BruV01,
  author       = "Cisco de Bruijn and Hans de Vries and Janet Wijngaard",
  title        = "Statistical correction of periodic errors
                  in sea level forecasts",
  institution  = "KNMI",
  type         = "Memorandum",
  number       = "WM--01--03",
  year         = 2001,
  month        = apr,
  note         = "Unpublished Manuscript" }


Hans de Vries, Wed Nov 14 16:22:22 CET 2001