Department:	Climate Research & Seismology, Oceanographic Research
Function:	Senior Researcher
Address:	P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, The Netherlands
Telephone:	+31 30 2206711 (direct) +31 30 2206394 (secretary)
Telefax:	+31 30 2202570
Email:
Web:	www.knmi.nl/~oldenbor (private: www.xs4all.nl/~gjvo)
Google Earth:	here

News
14-may-2013	GISS data were unavailable for a few days due to a corrupted ocean data file
13-may-2013	IPCC WG1 AR5 Final Draft deadline.
23-apr-2013	NOTE: Changed the "frozen" March 15 dataset: ETHZ and the Met Office could not figure out what the correct data for HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 r1i1p1 was, so we switched to HadGEM2-ES r2i1p1 for all scenarios (thanks Urs)
more...

• The climate of the Netherlands in relationship to global warming (IPCC, KvK)
• Predictability of extreme weather in monthly, seasonal and climate forecasts
• Verification of monthly, seasonal, decadal and climate forecasts (THOR)

A tool I developed for these projects is the KNMI Climate Explorer, which allows anyone to correlate station data, climate indices, observations, reanalysis fields, past seasonal and decadal forecasts and climate change experiments.

Doblas-Reyes, F.J., I. Andreu-Burillo, Y. Chikamoto, J. García-Serrano, V. Guémas, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, L.R.L. Rodrigues and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction accepted, Nature Communications, 2013. Abstract (html)

Hazeleger, W., B. Wouters, G.J. van Oldenborgh, S. Corti, T. Palmer, D. Smith, N. Dunstone, J. Kroeger, H. Pohlmann and J.S. von Storch, Predicting multiyear north Atlantic ocean variability accepted, J. Geophys. Res., 2013. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 4 MB)

Meehl, G.A., L. Goddard, ... and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches accepted, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2013. Abstract (html)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, A.T.J. de Laat, J. Luterbacher, W.J. Ingram and T.J. Osborn, Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? accepted, Environmental Research Letters, 2013. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Bintanja, R., G.J. van Oldenborgh, S.S. Drijfhout, B. Wouters and C.A. Katsman, Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion Nature Geoscience, 2013, doi:10.1038/ngeo1767. Abstract (html)

Haarsma, R.J., F.M. Selten and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Anthropogenic changes of the thermal and zonal flow structure over Western Europe and Eastern North Atlantic in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models Clim. Dyn., 2013, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1734-8. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 778 KB)

Haarsma, R.J., W. Hazeleger, C. Severijns, H. de Vries, A. Sterl, R. Bintanja, G.J. van Oldenborgh and H.W. van den Brink, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming Geophys. Res. Lett., 2013, doi:10.1002/grl.50360. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Haren, R. van, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Lenderink and W. Hazeleger, Evaluation of modeled changes in extreme precipitation in Europe and the Rhine basin Environmental Research Letters, 2013, 8, 1405, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014053. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Lenderink, W. Hazeleger, R. Haarsma and H. de Vries, Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5 Clim. Dyn., 2013, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y. Abstract (html)  Complete text (html)

Min, E., W. Hazeleger, G.J. van Oldenborgh and A. Sterl, Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in North-Western Europe in regional climate models Environmental Research Letters, 2013, 8, 1, 014011, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014011. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 1 MB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, S.S. Drijfhout and E. Hawkins, Reliability of regional climate model trends Environmental Research Letters, 2013, 8, 1, 014055, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014055. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Trouet, V. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, KNMI Climate Explorer: a web-based research tool for high-resolution paleoclimatology Tree Ring Research, 2013, 69, 1, 3-13, doi:10.3959/1536-1098-69.1.3. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 929 KB)

Bladé, I., B. Liebmann, D. Fortuny and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO (SNAO) in the Southern Europe/Mediterranean region: Connections to projected drying in this region Clim. Dyn., 2012, 39, 709-727, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1195-x. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Bladé, I., D. Fortuny, G.J. van Oldenborgh and B. Liebmann, The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe J. Geophys. Res., 2012, 117, D16104, doi:10.1029/2012JD017816. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Drijfhout, S.S., G.J. van Oldenborgh and A.A. Cimatoribus, Is the decline of the AMOC responsible for the warming hole above the North Atlantic in the 20th century warming pattern? J. Climate, 2012, 25, 8373-8379, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00490.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 533 KB)

Haren, R. van, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Lenderink, M. Collins and W. Hazeleger, SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends Clim. Dyn., 2012, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1401-5. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters and W. Hazeleger, Skill in the trend and internal variability in a multi-model decadal prediction ensemble Clim. Dyn., 2012, 38, 7, 1263-1280, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, A. van Urk and M.R. Allen, The absence of a role of climate change in the 2011 Thailand floods Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2012, 93, 1047-1049, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1. Presentation: IDAG workshop, 1/2/2012-3/2/2012, Boulder, Co, USA, NCAR (int.). Complete text (pdf)

Otto, F.E.L., N. Massey, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R.G. Jones and M.R. Allen, Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave Geophys. Res. Lett., 2012, 39, 4, L04702, doi:10.1029/2011GL050422. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 572 KB)

All journal publications