Bladé, I., B. Liebmann, D. Fortuny and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO (SNAO) in the Southern Europe/Mediterranean region: Connections to projected drying in this region Clim. Dyn., 2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1195-x. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Katsman, C.A. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Correction to 'Tracing the upper ocean's missing heat' Geophys. Res. Lett., 2011, 38, 20, L20602, doi:10.1029/2011GL049834. Complete text (pdf)

Katsman, C.A. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Tracing the upper ocean's 'missing heat' Geophys. Res. Lett., 2011, 38, L14610, doi:10.1029/2011GL048417. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 625 KB)

Lenderink, G., H.Y. Mok, T.C. Lee and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011, 4701-4719, doi:10.5194/hessd-8-4701-2011. Abstract (html)  Complete text (html)

Schrier, G. van der, A.P. van Ulden and G.J. van Oldenborgh, The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature Climate of the Past, 2011, 7, 527-542, doi:10.5194/cp-7-527-2011. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 1 MB)

Shongwe, M.E., G.J. van Oldenborgh, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk and M.A. van Aalst, Projected changes in extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming, Part II: East Africa J. Climate, 2011, 24, 3718-3733, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, P. Yiou and R. Vautard, On the roles of circulation and aerosols in the decline of mist and dense fog in Europe over the last 30 years Atm. Chem. Phys., 2010, 10, 4597-4609, doi:10.5194/acp-10-4597-2010. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf)

Philip, S.Y., M. Collins, G.J. van Oldenborgh and B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, The role of atmosphere and ocean physical processes in ENSO Ocean Science, 2010, 6, 441-459, doi:10.5194/os-6-441-2010. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Guilyardi, E., A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang, A. Capotondi and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2009, 90, 325-340, doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2387.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, L.A. te Raa, H.A. Dijkstra and S.Y. Philip, Frequency- or amplitude-dependent effects of the Atlantic meridional overturning on the tropical Pacific Ocean Ocean Science, 2009, 5, 293-301, doi:10.5194/os-5-293-2009. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, S.S. Drijfhout, A. van Ulden, R. Haarsma, A. Sterl, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger and H. Dijkstra, Western Europe is warming much faster than expected Climate of the Past, 2009, 5, 1, 1-12, doi:10.5194/cp-5-1-2009. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 1 MB)

Philip, S.Y. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Atmospheric properties and the ENSO cycle: models versus observations Clim. Dyn., 2009, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0579-7. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Philip, S.Y. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Significant atmospheric nonlinearities in the ENSO cycle J. Climate, 2009, 22, 14, 4014-4028, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2716.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 705 KB)

Shongwe, M.E., R.G. Graversen, G.J. van Oldenborgh, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk and F.J. Doblas-Reyes, Energy budget of the extreme Autumn 2006 in Europe Clim. Dyn., 2009, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0689-2. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf)

Shongwe, M.E., G.J. van Oldenborgh, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, B. de Boer, C.A.S. Coelho and M.K. van Aalst, Projected changes in extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part 1: Southern Africa J. Climate, 2009, 22, 3819-3837, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2317.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf)

Vautard, R., P. Yiou and G.J. van Oldenborgh, The decline of fog, mist and haze in Europe during the last 30 years: a warming amplifier? Nature Geoscience, 2009, 2, 115-119, doi:10.1038/NGEO414. Abstract (html)

Katsman, C.A., W. Hazeleger, S.S. Drijfhout, G.J. van Oldenborgh and G.J.H. Burgers, Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt Climatic Change, 2008, doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9442-9. Complete text (pdf: 395 KB)

Sterl, A., C. Severijns, H. Dijkstra, W. Hazeleger, G.J. van Oldenborgh, M. van den Broeke, G. Burgers, B. van den Hurk, P.J. van Leeuwen and P. van Velthoven, When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? Geophys. Res. Lett., 2008, 35, 14, L14703, doi:10.1029/2008GL034071. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 1 MB)

Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den, A.M.G. Klein Tank, G. Lenderink, A. van Ulden, G.J. van Oldenborgh, C. Katsman, H. van den Brink, F. Keller, J. Bessembinder, G. Burgers, G. Komen, W. Hazeleger and S. Drijfhout, New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands Water Science and Technology, 2007, 56, 4, 27-33, doi:10.2166/wst.2007.533. Abstract (html)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe? Climate of the Past, 2007, 3, 659-668, doi:10.5194/cp-3-659-2007. Abstract (html)  Complete text (html)

Shongwe, M.E., C.A.T. Ferro, C.A.S. Coelho and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe Mon. Wea. Rev., 2007, 135, 4185-4201, doi:10.1175/2007MWR2094.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Sterl, A., G.J. van Oldenborgh, W. Hazeleger and G. Burgers, On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections Clim. Dyn., 2007, 29, 469-485, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0251-z. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 6 MB)

Coelho, C.A.S., D.B. Stephenson, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda and G.J. van Oldenborgh, A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America Meteorological Applications (Royal Met. Society), 2006, 13, 73-82, doi:10.1017/S1350482705002045. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 271 KB)

Coelho, C.A.S., D.B. Stephenson, M.A. Balmaseda, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America J. Climate, 2006, 19, 15, 3704-3721, doi:10.1175/JCLI3801.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Philip, S.Y. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33, L11704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026196. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 522 KB)

Ulden, A.P. van and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe Atm. Chem. Phys., 2006, 6, 863-881, sref:1680-7324/acp/2006-6-863. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Brink, H.W. van den, G.P. Können, J.D. Opsteegh, G.J. van Oldenborgh and G. Burgers, Estimating return periods of extreme events from ECMWF seasonal forecast ensembles Int. J. Climatology, 2005, 25, 1345-1354, doi:10.1002/joc.1155. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Burgers, G., F.F. Jin and G.J. van Oldenborgh, The simplest ENSO recharge oscillator Geophys. Res. Lett., 2005, 32, 13, L13706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022951. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 108 KB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, Comment on 'Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events' by P.-P. Mathieu, R. T. Sutton, B. Dong and M. Collins J. Climate, 2005, 18, 14, 2770-2772. Complete text (pdf: 257 KB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, M.A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T.N. Stockdale and D.L.T. Anderson, Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years? J. Climate, 2005, 18, 16, 3240-3249, doi:10.1175/JCLI3420.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 234 KB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, S.Y. Philip and M. Collins, El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study Ocean Science, 2005, 1, 81-95, sref:1812-0792/os/2005-1-81. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, M.A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T.N. Stockdale and D.L.T. Anderson, Evaluation of atmospheric fields from the ECMWF seasonal forecasts over a 15 year period J. Climate, 2005, 18, 5188-5198. J. Climate, 2005, 18, 16, 3250-3269, doi:10.1175/JCLI3421.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van and G. Burgers, Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections Geophys. Res. Lett., 2005, 32, 15, L15701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023110. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 1 MB)

Zelle, H., G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Burgers and H. Dijkstra, El Niño and Greenhouse warming: Results from Ensemble Simulations with the NCAR CCSM J. Climate, 2005, 18, 22, 4669-4683. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 3 MB)

Brink, H.W. van den, G.P. Können, J.D. Opsteegh, G.J. van Oldenborgh and G. Burgers, Improving 10^4-year surge level estimates using data of the ECMWF seasonal prediction system Geophys. Res. Lett., 2004, 31, L17210, doi:10.1029/2004GL020610. Complete text (pdf: 506 KB)

Zelle, H., G. Appeldoorn, G. Burgers and G.J. van Oldenborgh, The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Thermocline Depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2004, 34, 3, 643-655, doi:10.1175/2523.1. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)

Burgers, G. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, On the impact of local feedbacks in the Central Pacific on the ENSO cycle J. Climate, 2003, 16, 14, 2396-2407. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 590 KB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van and A. van Ulden, On the relationship between global warming, local warming in the Netherlands and changes in circulation in the 20th century KNMI publication: PR-2003-05, 25/2/2003. Int. J. Climatology, 2003, 23, 1711-1723, doi:10.1002/joc.966. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 285 KB)

Burgers, G., M.A. Balmaseda, F.C. Vossepoel, G.J. van Oldenborgh and P.J. van Leeuwen, Balanced ocean-data assimilation near the equator J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2002, 32, 2509-2519. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 362 KB)

Martis, A., G.J. van Oldenborgh and G. Burgers, Predicting rainfall in the Dutch Caribbean - more than El Niño? Int. J. Climatology, 2002, 22, 1219-1234, doi:10.1002/joc.779. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 699 KB)

Bonekamp, H., G.J. van Oldenborgh and G. Burgers, Variational Assimilation of TAO and XBT Data in the HOPE OGCM, Adjusting the Surface Fluxes in the Tropical Ocean J. Geophys. Res., 2001, C106, 16693-16709. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 1 MB)

Hazeleger, W., P. de Vries and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Do tropical cells ventilate the Indo-Pacific equatorial thermocline? Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28, 9, 1763-1766, doi:0.1029/2000GL012362. Abstract (html)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, G. Burgers and A. Klein Tank, On the El-Niño Teleconnection to Spring Precipitation in Europe Int. J. Climatology, 2000, 20, 565-574. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 677 KB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, What caused the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño? KNMI publication: PR-99-03, 12/1998. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2000, 128, 2601-2607. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 306 KB)

Oldenborgh, G.J. van, G. Burgers, S. Venzke, C. Eckert and R. Giering, Tracking down the ENSO delayed oscillator with an adjoint OGCM Mon. Wea. Rev., 1999, 127, 1477-1496. Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 2 MB)