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Publications, presentations and other activities
More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming
2013
by R.J. Haarsma (KNMI), W. Hazeleger (KNMI), C. Severijns (KNMI), H. de Vries (KNMI), A. Sterl (KNMI)R. Bintanja (KNMI)G.J. van Oldenborgh (KNMI)H.W. van den Brink (KNMI)
Abstract
We use a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures to show that greenhouse warming enhances the occurrence of hurricane-force (> 32.6 m s-1) storms over Western Europe during early autumn (Aug-Oct), the majority of which originate as a tropical cyclone. The rise in Atlantic tropical SSTs extends eastwards the breeding ground of tropical cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed towards Europe. En route they transform into extra-tropical depressions and re-intensify after merging with the mid-latitude baroclinic unstable flow. Our model simulations clearly show that future tropical cyclones are more prone to hit Western Europe, and do so earlier in the season, thereby increasing the frequency and impact of hurricane force winds.
Biblographic data
| Haarsma, R.J., W. Hazeleger, C. Severijns, H. de Vries, A. Sterl, R. Bintanja, G.J. van Oldenborgh and H.W. van den Brink, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 3 MB) |  |
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