Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Ministery of Infrastructure and the Environment

Publications, presentations and other activities
Probabilistic forecasts of (severe) thunderstorms for the purpose of issuing a weather alarm in the Netherlands
2008
by M.J. Schmeits (KNMI), C.J. Kok (KNMI), D.H.P. Vogelezang (KNMI), R.M. van Westrhenen (KNMI),
Abstract

The development and verification of a new model output statistics (MOS) system is described, which is intended to help the forecasters to decide whether a weather alarm for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning intensity, should be issued in the Netherlands. The system consists of logistic regression equations for both the probability of thunderstorms and the conditional probability of severe thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October). These equations have been derived for 12 regions of about 90 km x 80 km each and for projections out to 12 h in advance (with 6-h periods). As a source for the predictands, reprocessed total lightning data from the Surveillance et d'Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) network have been used. The potential predictor dataset not only consisted of the combined postprocessed output from two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as in our previous study, but it also contained an ensemble of advected radar and lightning data for the 0-6 h projections. The NWP model output dataset contained 17 traditional thunderstorm indices, computed from a reforecasting experiment with the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM), and postprocessed output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. Brier skill scores and attributes diagrams show that the skill of the MOS thunderstorm forecast system is good, and that the severe thunderstorm forecast system generally is also skilful, compared to the 2000-2004 climatology, and therefore, the pre-operational system was made operational at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) in 2008.

Biblographic data
Schmeits, M.J., C.J. Kok, D.H.P. Vogelezang and R.M. van Westrhenen, Probabilistic forecasts of (severe) thunderstorms for the purpose of issuing a weather alarm in the Netherlands
Weather and Forecasting, 2008, 23, 6, 1253-1267, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2007102.1.
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