Chapter 6 - Future changes in precipitation distributions over Africa

The African continent is home to approximately 1.4 billion people, about 18% of the world's population. Monsoon precipitation is critical to African societies, contributing a large proportion of the average annual precipitation. Variations in monsoon precipitation have major impacts on, for example, agriculture, freshwater supply and sanitation, and hydropower generation. Unusually low precipitation can also lead to large and prolonged droughts across Africa, increasing mortality. Future changes in monsoon precipitation, therefore, have important societal implications. In this chapter, we summarize the impact of climate change on future changes in precipitation over Africa and for the end of the 21st century. Climate models show that precipitation is projected to increase over most of the African continent (the central Sahel, east and central Africa), while precipitation is projected to decrease over the western Sahel and south-eastern Africa. We document the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events. We also explain the uncertainty in simulated changes in precipitation and discuss ways to improve the reliability of projections.