Climate scenarios for Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten. Scientific basis, methodology and projected climate change for 2050 and 2100.

This report presents climate scenarios for Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten for 2050 and 2100 relative to the 1991–2020 reference period. The scenarios are developed within the framework of the International Panel on Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC). The scenarios combine local observations, global climate model projections, and current scientific understanding of climate change, building on the methodology developed for the KNMI’23 climate scenarios. Uncertainty is represented through three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and two regional precipitation storylines that reflect uncertainty in future drying over the Caribbean.

The report provides projections of temperature, heat, precipitation, wind speed and sea level. All scenarios project continued warming throughout the twenty-first century, accompanied by more frequent hot days and higher maximum temperatures. Most scenarios indicate a drying tendency, although projected precipitation changes remain uncertain, with annual precipitation ranging from limited changes to reductions of up to approximately 50%. Wind speed changes are generally small. Sea level is projected to rise by approximately 20 cm by 2050 and by 50 to 80 cm by 2100 relative to 1991–2020, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, with larger increases possible under low-likelihood, high-impact ice-sheet loss scenarios. Sea level is projected to continue rising beyond 2100 under all emissions scenarios.

These climate scenarios provide a scientifically robust basis for climate risk assessments and adaptation planning on Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten, and highlight the importance of both global greenhouse gas emission reductions and timely local adaptation to increase the long-term resilience of the islands.

Public reports are also available in English, Dutch and Papiamentu/o for each island.