KNMI Climate Scenarios for Aruba

This report presents climate scenarios for Aruba in English, describing how the island’s climate may change by 2050 and 2100 relative to the 1991–2020 reference period. The scenarios are developed within the framework of the International Panel on Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC). They are based on local observations, the latest global climate model projections, and current scientific understanding of climate change. They provide a scientific basis for climate adaptation and long-term decision-making by governments, businesses, and other stakeholders.

The report shows that Aruba will continue to warm throughout the twenty-first century, leading to more frequent hot days and higher temperatures. Most climate scenarios also indicate a drier future, although the magnitude of precipitation change remains uncertain. Sea level is projected to continue rising, increasing the risk of coastal impacts and flooding, while projected changes in average wind speed are relatively small. The extent of future climate change depends strongly on global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the importance of both international mitigation efforts and timely local adaptation.

This report summarizes the main findings of the accompanying scientific report Climate Scenarios for Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten: Scientific basis, methodology and projected climate change for 2050 and 2100, translating them into accessible climate information for Aruba.

A Dutch and Papiamento translation of this report is also available.