This project develops story-lines about extreme climate events with high impact in Eurazia with collaborators in the UK, Norway, India and China. Historical data and large climate model ensembles will form the basis for powerful stories about how climate affects society and vice versa, how different regions are connected by large-scale climate events and how extreme weather can be, now and in a warmer world . Special emphasis will be on the predictability of such large-scale, high-impact climate events. Active collaboration is sought with impact modellers.
Resulting scientific papers:
K van der Wiel, HC Bloomfield, RW Lee, LP Stoop, R Blackport, JA Screen, FM Selten (2019): The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 094010.
R Bintanja, K van der Wiel, EC van der Linden, J Reusen, L Bogerd, F Krikken, FM Selten (2020): Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport. Science Advances, 6, pp. eaax6869.
K van der Wiel, FM Selten, R Bintanja, R Blackport, JA Screen (2020): Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 034050.
K van der Wiel, R Bintanja: Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes. Communications Earth and Environment. In press.
Scientific papers with data from the HIWAVES3 simulations:
Nanditha JS, K van der Wiel, U Bhatia, D Stone, FM Selten, V Mishra (2020): A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 044028.
SY Philip, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh: Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought trends in the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 094081.
SF Kew, SY Philip, M Hauser, M Hobbins, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, TIE Veldkamp, J Kimutai, C Funk, FEL Otto: Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought in eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics. In press.
S Vijverberg, M Schmeits, K van der Wiel, D Coumou: Sub-seasonal statistical forecasts of eastern United States hot temperature events. Monthly Weather Review. In press.
PNJ Bonekamp, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, AF Lutz, WW Immerzeel: Using large ensemble modelling to derive future changes in mountain specific climate indicators in a 2 °C and 3 °C warmer world in High Mountain Asia. International Journal of Climatology. In press.
J Vogel, P Rivoire, C Deidda, L Rahimi, CA Sauter, E Tschumi, K van der Wiel, T Zhang, J Zschleischler: Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields. Earth System Dynamics Discussions. Open review.
G van Kempen, K van der Wiel, LA Melsen: The impact of hydrological model structure on the simulation of extreme runoff events. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions. Open review.
Last updated November 2020