Modeling spatio-temporal land transformation and its associated impacts on land surface temperature (LST)

Land use land cover (LULC) of city regions is strongly affected by urbanization and affects
the thermal environment of urban centers by influencing the surface temperature of core city areas
and their surroundings. These issues are addressed in the current study, which focuses on two
provincial capitals in Pakistan, i.e., Lahore and Peshawar. Using Landsat data, LULC is determined
with the aim to (a) examine the spatio‐temporal changes in LULC over a period of 20 years from
1998 to 2018 using a CA‐Markov model, (b) predict the future scenarios of LULC changes for the
years 2023 and 2028, and (c) study the evolution of different LULC categories and investigate its
impacts on land surface temperature (LST). The results for Peshawar city indicate the significant
expansion in vegetation and built‐up area replacing barren land. The vegetation cover and urban
area of Peshawar have increased by 25.6%, and 16.3% respectively. In contrast, Lahore city urban
land has expanded by 11.2% while vegetation cover decreased by (22.6%). These transitions between
LULC classes also affect the LST in the study areas. Transformation of vegetation cover and water
surface into built‐up areas or barren land results in the increase in the LST. In contrast, the
transformation of urban areas and barren land into vegetation cover or water results in the decrease
in LST. The different LULC evolutions in Lahore and Peshawar clearly indicate their effects on the
thermal environment, with an increasing LST trend in Lahore and a decrease in Peshawar. This
study provides a baseline reference to urban planners and policymakers for informed decisions