Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation.
LJ Wilcox, P Yiou, FC Lott, GJ van Oldenborgh, I Colfescu, B Dong, G Hegerl, L Shaffrey, R Sutton. Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change
Status: published, Journal: Clim. Dyn., Volume: 50, Year: 2018, First page: 3537, Last page: 3555, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7