On the El-Niño Teleconnection to Spring Precipitation in Europe

In a statistical analysis of more than a century of data we find a strong connection between strong warm El Niño winter events and high spring precipitation in a band from southern England eastwards into Asia. This relationship is an extension of the connection mentioned by Kiladis and Diaz (1989), and much stronger than the winter season teleconnection that has been the subject of other studies. Linear correlation coefficients between December-February NINO3 indices and March-May precipitation are higher than r=0.3 for individual stations, and as high as r=0.49 for an index of precipitation anomalies around 50°N from 5°W to 35°E. The lagged correlation suggests that Southeast Asian surface temperature anomalies may act as intermediate variables.