Observations show that, during winter, the time scale of memory of the stratosphere is about one month. Also, variations in the stratosphere and in the troposphere are coupled. This indicates that during winter the stratosphere is a predictor of the troposphere at the monthly time scale. We have investigated this predictability, using easily computable stratospheric predictors.
PC Siegmund. The stratosphere as an extended-range weather predictor
published, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005, 86