European Climate Impacts under a Collapsing Atlantic Ocean Circulation

Speaker: Dr. René van Westen (Universiteit Utrecht)

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in transporting heat and salt through the global ocean and strongly modulates the regional and global climate. Available observations suggest that the present-day AMOC is weakening, and climate projections indicate a continued decline under future warming. There is also a risk of a complete collapse, which would trigger large-scale climate impacts.

In this talk, we present the latest research on AMOC-induced climate impacts using a state-of-the-art climate model. We simulate several AMOC collapse scenarios under different background climate conditions, including a range of future climate change pathways. Our focus is on European climate responses to a collapsed AMOC, with an emphasis on key variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level. In particular, Northwestern Europe, including the Netherlands, would experience severe consequences under a collapse combined with an intermediate emission scenario: harsher winters, generally drier conditions with more frequent droughts, and up to 50 cm of additional sea-level rise.

René van Westen is a postdoctoral researcher at Utrecht University, specialised in high-resolution climate modelling and the role of the AMOC in the climate system.

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