Publication database KNMI

The publication database contains the (co-)authored publications in scientific journals, KNMI reports and other publications

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  1. Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates

    Predictable modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a...

    Theodore R. Keeping, Theodore G. Shepherd, I. Colin Prentice, Karin van der Wiel, and Sandy P. Harrison | Climate Dynamics | 2026 | 64
  2. Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique

    Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from tropical cyclones (TCs) under climate chan...

    Henrique M.D. Goulart, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Kees van Ginkel, Karin van der Wiel, Gundula Winter, Izidine Pinto, Bart van den Hurk | Cell Reports Sustainability | 2025 | 2
  3. Spatiotemporal Clustering of Preferred Trajectories of the Euro-Atlantic Summer Circulation

    We present a novel approach to studying the regime behavior of the Euro-Atlantic summer circulati...

    Ruud Sperna Weiland, Karin van der Wiel, Frank Selten, and Dim Coumou | J. Climate | 2025 | 38
  4. Present and future interannual variability in wildfire occurrence: a large ensemble application to the United States

    Realistic projections of future wildfires need to account for both the stochastic nature of clima...

    Theodore R. Keeping, Boya Zhou, Wenjia Cai, Theodore G. Shepherd, Colin Prentice, Karin van der Wiel, Sandy P. Harrison | Front. For. Glob. Change | 2025 | 8
  5. Distinct Favored Regions for Historical Record-Setting and Future Record-Breaking Humid Heat

    Recent studies have revealed strong trends in humid heat, including the nearing of human physiolo...

    Colin Raymond, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Vikki Thompson, Karin van der Wiel | AGU Advances | 2025 | 6
  6. Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken or even collapse und...

    van Westen, R. M., van der Wiel, K., Falkena, S. K. J., and Selten, F. | Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. | 2025 | 29
  7. Meteorological drivers of co-occurring renewable energy droughts in Europe

    As Europe transitions to renewable energy sources, its electricity system becomes increasingly de...

    Bram van Duinen, Lieke van der Most, Michiel Baatsen, Karin van der Wiel | Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | 2025 | 223
  8. Impacts of future changes in climate variability on Europe’s renewable electricity systems

    The shift toward renewable energy as part of Europe’s climate-neutral strategy increases the ener...

    L van der Most, K van der Wiel, RMJ Benders, PW Gerbens-Leenes, R Bintanja | Environmental Research: Climate | 2025 | 4
  9. Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts

    Multi-year droughts (MYDs) are severe natural hazards that have become more common due to climate...

    Jonna van Mourik, Denise Ruijsch, Karin van der Wiel, Wilco Hazeleger, Niko Wanders | Weather and Climate Extremes | 2025 | 48
  10. The climatological renewable energy deviation index (CREDI)

    We propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energ...

    Laurens P Stoop, Karin van der Wiel, William Zappa, Arno Haverkamp, Ad J Feelders, Machteld van den Broek | Environmental Research Letters | 2024 | 19
  11. Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique

    Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from tropical cyclones (TCs) under climate chan...

    Henrique M.D. Goulart, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Kees van Ginkel, Karin van der Wiel, Gundula Winter, Izidine Pinto, Bart van den Hurk1 | Cell Reports Sustainability | 2024
  12. Underestimation of meteorological drought intensity due to lengthening of the drought season with climate change

    Meteorological drought may lead to water shortages, which has negative impacts on water-dependent...

    Job Dullaart, Karin van der Wiel | Environmental Research: Climate | 2024 | 3
  13. Temporally compounding energy droughts in European electricity systems with hydropower

    As Europe’s renewable energy capacities expand, electricity systems face increased risks of energ...

    L. van der Most, K. van der Wiel, R. M. J. Benders, P. W. Gerbens-Leenes & R. Bintanja | Nature Energy | 2024
  14. Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut‐off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event

    In July 2021, a cut‐off low‐pressure system brought extreme precipitation to Western Europe. Reco...

    Vikki Thompson, Dim Coumou, Vera Melinda Galfi, Tamara Happé, Sarah Kew, Izidine Pinto, Sjoukje Philip, Hylke de Vries, Karin van der Wiel | Atmospheric Science Letters | 2024 | 25
  15. KNMI'23 climate scenarios for the Netherlands: storyline scenarios of regional climate change

    This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenario...

    K van der Wiel, J Beersma, H van den Brink, F Krikken, F Selten, C Severijns, A Sterl, E van Meijgaard, T Reerink, R van Dorland | Earth's Future | 2024 | 12
  16. Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines

    High impact events like Hurricane Sandy (2012) significantly affect society and decision-making a...

    HMD Goulart, IB Lazaro, L van Garderen, K van der Wiel, D Le Bars, E Koks, B van den Hurk | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences | 2024 | 24
  17. Managing water across the flood–drought spectrum: Experiences from and challenges for the Netherlands

    Recent impactful hydrometeorological events, on both the extreme wet and dry side of the spectrum...

    RP Bartholomeus, K van der Wiel, AF van Loon, MHJ van Huijgevoort, MTH van Vliet, M Mens, S Muurling-van Geffen, N Wanders, W Pot | Cambridge Prisms: Water | 2023 | 1
  18. Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2

    Alongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models ...

    M Kolbe, JPJ Sonnemans, R Bintanja, EC van der Linden,  K van der Wiel, K Whan, I Benedict | Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres | 2023 | 128
  19. The KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS)

    Large-ensemble modelling has become an increasingly popular approach to studying the mean climate...

    L Muntjewerf, R Bintanja, T Reerink, K van der Wiel | Geoscientific Model Development | 2023 | 16
  20. Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain

    The UK has experienced recurring hydrological droughts in the past and their frequency and severi...

    WCH Chan, NW Arnell, G Darch, K Facer-Childs, TG Shepherd, M Tanguy, K van der Wiel | Journal of Hydrology | 2023 | 625
  21. Large variability in simulated response of vegetation composition and carbon dynamics to variations in drought-heat occurrence

    The frequency of heatwaves, droughts and their co-occurrence vary greatly in simulations of diffe...

    E Tschumi, S Lienert, A Bastos, P Ciais, K Gregor, F Joos, J Knauer, P Papastefanou, A Rahmig, K van der Wiel, K Williams, Y Xu, S Zähle, J Zscheischler | Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 128, pp. e2022JG007332. | 2023 | 128
  22. Increase of simultaneous soybean failures due to climate change

    While soybeans are among the most consumed crops in the world, most of its production lies in the...

    H Goulart, K van der Wiel, C Folberth, E Boere, B van den Hurk | Earth's Future | 2023 | 11
  23. Simulating hydrological extremes for different warming levels–combining large scale climate ensembles with local observation based machine learning models

    Climate change has a large influence on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. However, r...

    SM Hauswirth, K van der Wiel, MFP Bierkens, V Beijk, N Wanders | Frontiers in Water | 2023 | 5
  24. Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate

    Three consecutive dry summers in western Europe (2018–2019–2020) had widespread negative impacts ...

    K van der Wiel, TJ Batelaan, N Wanders | Climate Dynamics | 2023 | 60
  25. A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger

    Wildfires are recurrent natural hazards that affect terrestrial ecosystems, the carbon cycle, cli...

    SJ Bakke, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, LM Tallaksen | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences | 2023 | 23